印度总人口数约14亿人，占全球18%。印度的外贸支柱主要是外包软件，信息技术，仿制药，服装和海运。印度疫情严重失控，除了疫情外溢可能带来的卫生危机，还有可能产生更多蝴蝶效应扩及全球众多产业。欧美金融机构后台崩溃，药品、服饰供应链断裂，这些行业正遭受严重冲击……
India's Covid-19 catastrophe could make global shortages even worse
By Diksha Madhok, CNN Business
A terrifying and record-breaking wave of Covid-19 in India threatens to stall the country's economic recovery and send shockwaves through several important global industries.
这一波可怕的、创纪录的新冠疫情不仅可能会阻碍印度的经济复苏，还会对全球几个重要行业产生冲击波。
Asia's third largest economy has been struggling for weeks to control the devastating surge. Hundreds of thousands of new cases are reported every day, and economists are rethinking their forecasts for double-digit growth this year — a troubling sign for a country that plunged into recession last year for the first time in nearly a quarter of a century after the government imposed a nationwide lockdown.
这一亚洲第三大经济体几个星期来一直在努力控制灾难性的疫情。每天都会有成千上万的新病例报告，经济学家们正在重新考虑其对今年GDP两位数增幅的预估——这是一个令人不安的迹象，去年，在政府实施全国封锁后，印度陷入了近四分之一个世纪以来的首次衰退。
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has so far resisted calls to impose another total lockdown on the country, even as many regions have announced their own heavy restrictions. But several global industries that rely on India are looking on anxiously. Should the crisis deepen, everything from clothing and pharmaceuticals to financial services and global shipping could feel the pain.
迄今为止，印度总理纳伦德拉-莫迪(Narendra Modi)一直抵制对该国再次实施全面封锁的呼吁，尽管许多地区已经宣布了自己的严格限制。但一些依赖印度的全球产业正焦急地观望着。如果危机加深，从服装和药品到金融服务和全球航运，一切都会重新感受到痛苦。
Supply chains
供应链危机
About 80% of world goods trade by volume is carried on ships, according to the United Nations World Conference on Trade and Development, and India provides many of their crews.
联合国世界贸易和发展会议的数据显示，按贸易量计算，全球约80%的商品贸易是通过船舶进行的，其中许多船员来自印度。
More than 200,000 of an estimated 1.7 million seafarers globally are from India, according to Guy Platten, the Secretary General at the International Chamber of Shipping. Many of them have officer ranks and roles requiring important skills, he added.
国际航运商会(International Chamber of Shipping)秘书长盖伊-普拉滕(Guy Platten)说，全球约170万名海员中，有20多万来自印度。他补充说，他们中的许多人拥有较高级别和需要重要技能的职务。
"We hope to goodness" this situation can be resolved, Platten told CNN Business. Otherwise it could lead to big "shortage of seafarers," which would "disrupt the global supply chain," he added.
“我们希望”这种情况能够得到解决，普拉腾接受采访时表示。他补充说，否则将导致严重的“海员短缺”，从而“扰乱全球供应链”。
As many countries have banned flights from India, it is already impossible to move Indian workers to ports around the world, and swap crews.
由于许多国家已经禁止从印度起飞的航班，将印度工人转移到全球各地的港口或交换机组人员已经不可能。
René Piil Pedersen, head of Marine Relations at Maersk, the world's largest container shipping company, hopes that countries start distinguishing between regular travelers and seafarers. Otherwise, he said, the world could face both a serious threat to global cargo flows, and a "humanitarian crisis," because crews would not be able to leave their vessels and return home.
全球最大的集装箱航运公司马士基(Maersk)的海员关系主管René-皮尔-佩德森(Piil Pedersen)希望，各国能够区分经常旅行者和海员。他说，否则，全球海运货物可能面临严重威胁，还可能会产生一场“人道主义危机”，因为船员将无法离开他们的船只返回家园。
The pandemic threw global shipping into chaos last year, with nearly 200,000 seafarers stranded for months due to port closures and grounded airplanes. Some workers had started calling their vessels "floating prisons" — and Pedersen fears a return to that scenario if India's Covid-19 crisis continues unabated.
去年，疫情使全球航运业陷入混乱，近20万海员因港口关闭和飞机停飞而滞留数月。一些工人已经开始称他们的船只为“浮动监狱”，佩德森担心，如果印度的新冠危机未能改善，这种情况将再次出现。
Vaccines and other pharmaceuticals
疫苗和其他药品短缺
The world's vaccination drive is already suffering because of the outbreak in India, which typically produces more than 60% of all vaccines sold globally. The country is home to the Serum Institute of India (SII), the world's largest vaccine maker. Its vast manufacturing capability is why the country signed on as a major player in COVAX, the global initiative that provides discounted or free doses of the Covid-19 vaccine for lower-income countries.
由于印度的疫情爆发，全球的疫苗接种已经受到影响。印度生产的疫苗通常占全球销售疫苗的60%以上。该国是全球最大的疫苗制造商印度血清研究所的所在地。其强大的制造能力是该国成为COVAX的主要参与者的原因。COVAX是一项全球倡议，为低收入国家提供打折或免费的新冠疫苗。
SII agreed last year to manufacture up to 200 million Covid vaccine doses for up to 92 countries. But, with only 2% of India's population fully vaccinated, the government and SII have shifted focus from supplying vaccines to other countries, and are now prioritizing Indian citizens.
印度血清研究所去年同意为多达92个国家生产多达2亿剂新冠疫苗。但是，由于只有2%的印度人口完全接种了疫苗，政府和该机构已经将重点从向其他国家提供疫苗转移，现在优先考虑的是印度公民。
The bad news doesn't end there. Apart from the Covid vaccine shortage, there could be other consequences for the worldwide pharmaceutical industry if the spread of the infection in India is not controlled soon.
坏消息还不止于此。除了新冠疫苗短缺之外，如果印度的感染传播不能很快得到控制，可能会对全球制药业造成其他后果。
India is the world's largest supplier of generic drugs — copies of brand-name pharmaceuticals that have the same effects but cost less. In the United States, 90% of all prescriptions are filled by generic drugs and one in every three pills consumed is produced by an Indian generics manufacturer, according to an April 2020 study by the Confederation of Indian Industry and KPMG.
印度是世界上最大的仿制药供应商，仿制药是名牌药品的复制品，具有相同的效果，但成本更低。根据2020年4月印度工业联合会和毕马威(KPMG)的一项研究，在美国，90%的处方是由仿制药开出的，消费的药丸中有三分之一是由印度仿制药制造商生产的。
But Indian drug makers get as much as 70% of their raw materials from China, a link in the supply chain that looks vulnerable given the coronavirus surge. At the end of April, China's Sichuan Airlines suspended cargo flights to India for 15 days. That prompted India's top pharmaceutical export group to write to India's ambassador in Beijing, urging him to intervene.
但印度制药商多达70%的原材料来自中国，鉴于确诊病例激增，这一供应链环节看起来很脆弱。4月底，中国四川航空暂停了飞往印度的货运航班15天。
"Most countries depend on India for generic drugs, and India depends on China for raw material. It will be a big blow to [the] global pharma supply chain if trade between the two is disrupted," said Tinglong Dai, associate professor of Operations Management and Business Analytics at the Johns Hopkins Carey Business School.
“大多数国家依赖印度获得仿制药，而印度依赖中国获得原材料。如果两国之间的贸易中断，将对全球制药供应链造成重大打击，”约翰霍普金斯大学凯里商学院(Johns Hopkins Carey Business School)运营管理与商业分析副教授戴廷龙表示。
Clothes
纺织业受冲击
India is one of the largest textile exporters in the world, and the industry is struggling with severe labor shortages.
印度是全球最大的纺织品出口国之一，该行业正面临严重的劳动力短缺。
"This is the first time our generation has experienced something like this. No one was prepared for this dreadful scenario," said Arpit Aryan Gupta, partner and new business development head at apparel manufacturer NG Apparels, which is in Ludhiana, Punjab, a big garment producing hub. The company, which supplies brands including New Balance and Nordstrom, employs about 100 skilled and semi-skilled workers, and nearly 50% of them have left since the latest Covid-19 surge began. Gupta said he is providing housing for remaining workers on site to keep the factory running.
“这是我们这一代人第一次经历这样的事情。服装制造商NG apparel的合伙人兼新业务开发主管阿尔比特-雅利安-古普塔(Arpit Aryan Gupta)表示。该公司位于旁遮普省的大型服装生产中心卢迪亚纳。该公司为新百伦和诺德斯特龙等品牌供货，雇佣了约100名熟练和半熟练工人，但自新冠肺炎疫情爆发以来，近50%的工人已经离开。古普塔说，他正在为留在现场的工人提供住房，以维持工厂的运转。
Elsewhere, manufacturers are staring at equally worrisome scenarios.
In the major garment production hubs of Delhi and Bangalore — which are also states with a high number of Covid-19 infections — absenteeism among workers is as high as 50%, according to consulting firm Wazir Advisors. And for many manufacturers who are still recovering from last year's slowdown, the safety of workers has become a huge concern.
在印度其他地方，服装代工厂也在关注同样令人担忧的情况。据咨询公司Wazir Advisors的数据，在主要的服装生产中心德里和班加罗尔——这两个邦也是新一波疫情感染率较高的邦——工人旷工率高达50%。对于许多仍在从去年经济放缓中复苏的制造商来说，工人的安全已成为一个巨大的担忧。
Domestic clothing industry consumption and exports last year fell by 30% and 24%, respectively, according to Wazir Advisors. "But for 2021, it is difficult to project right now as we are not sure by when this pandemic will end," the firm added.
据Wazir Advisors的数据，去年，印度国内服装业的消费和出口分别下降了30%和24%。“但对于2021年，现在很难预测，因为我们不确定这场大流行何时会结束，”该公司补充说。
India is also a major global exporter of leather and leather goods. The country is the second-largest exporter of leather garments and the fourth-largest exporter of leather goods in the world, according to the Indian Council for Leather Exports. It is also a major producer of footwear, after China, producing nearly three billion pairs of shoes annually.
印度也是皮革和皮革制品的全球主要出口国。印度皮革出口委员会的数据显示，印度是全球第二大皮革服装出口国，也是第四大皮革制品出口国。它也是鞋类的主要生产国，仅次于中国，每年生产近30亿双鞋。
Last year, the pandemic dealt a serious blow to India's leather industry, and businesses had just begun to recover before the latest wave led to massive shutdowns and a shortage of skilled staff.
去年，大流行对印度的皮革行业造成了严重打击，企业刚刚开始复苏，最新一波大流行就导致大量企业倒闭和熟练员工短缺。
Financial services
金融服务业崩溃
Big banks and accounting firms are scrambling to keep their online operations afloat, given how important India is as a hub for their back offices.
考虑到印度作为外包办公中心的重要性，大型银行和会计师事务所正努力维持其在线业务。
Many companies have outsourced a huge number of information technology and operations jobs to India in recent decades, attracted by an educated workforce and cheaper labor costs. Almost 4.4 million people in the country are employed in IT and business process management, according to the National Association of Software and Service Companies, a trade body.
近几十年来，许多公司被受过良好教育的劳动力和更便宜的劳动力成本所吸引，将大量信息技术和运营工作外包给了印度。据行业组织印度软件与服务公司协会(National Association of Software and Service Companies)的数据，该国有近440万人受雇于IT和业务流程管理行业。
Some companies are taking some measures to address the crisis, include shifting work to other countries, encouraging staff to work from home and extending project deadlines.
一些公司正在采取一些措施来解决危机，包括将工作地点转移到其他国家，鼓励员工在家工作，以及延长项目期限。
Goldman Sachs (GS) and Wells Fargo (WFC), for example, have implemented remote work for all employees. But working from home during a pandemic is complicated, especially if employees have to look after sick relatives. There are also challenges around security and data protection, since employees may be handling sensitive company or customer information.
例如，高盛和富国银行已经为所有员工实施了远程工作。但是在新冠大流行期间在家工作是很复杂的，特别是当员工必须照顾生病的亲属时。在安全和数据保护方面也存在挑战，因为员工可能会处理公司或客户的敏感信息。
UK banks Barclays (BCLYF), NatWest and Stand ard Chartered (SCBFF) are in some cases redirecting work to other countries to relieve pressure on employees in India, many of whom have fallen ill or have care responsibilities at home.
英国巴克莱银行、NatWest和渣打银行在某些情况下将工作转移到其他国家，以减轻在印度的员工的压力，因为许多印度员工要么生病了，要么需要在家照顾亲属。
EY India, which has over 56,000 workers, activated a business continuity plan at the start of the surge, which included shifting work to other geographies. Almost all of its employees are working from home, according to Julie Teigland, a regional managing partner.
安永印度拥有超过5.6万名员工，在业务激增之初启动了一项业务连续性计划，其中包括将工作转移到其他地区。该地区管理合伙人朱莉-泰格兰(Julie Teigland)表示，该公司几乎所有员工都在家办公。
"A significant number of EY people and their family members have been directly impacted by the severe second wave of Covid in India," she told CNN Business.
“大量安永人和他们的家庭成员受到了印度第二波严重冠状病毒感染的直接影响，”她在采访中表示。