BEIJING, March. 7-- Crude oil prices may climb above the all-time high of US$55.67 a barrel in New York amid speculation that global oil production will fail to keep pace with rising demand, a Bloomberg survey of analysts and strategists showed.

Twenty-eight of 59 respondents, or 48 per cent, predicted oil prices will gain next week. Twenty-two, or 37 per cent, said they will fall and nine forecast little change. A week ago, 52 per cent of respondents said prices would increase. Fifteen of the last 22 surveys correctly predicted the market's direction.

Oil consumption is growing as the US and Chinese economies expand, boosting demand for petrol and jet fuel. That's left producers, including OPEC, pumping oil close to capacity.

"The market is not being driven by domestic supply and demand concerns, which is the norm, but global concerns," said Jason Schenker, an analyst with Wachovia Corp in Charlotte.

Crude oil for April delivery rose 21 US cents, or 0.4 per cent, to US$53.78 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest close since October 26. Prices gained 4.5 per cent this week. The contract touched US$54 per barrel in earlier trading.

In London, April Brent crude-oil futures fell 15 US cents, or 0.3 per cent, to US$51.80 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange. Prices reached US$51.95 a barrel, the highest close in 17 years of trading.

Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators have moved into energy because returns have been higher than in the stock market. Their buying has pushed petrol futures to an all-time high. Petrol prices also got a lift from concern that disruptions such as the loss of a crude oil processing unit at a Lyondell-Citgo facility in Houston this week may crimp supplies.

Petrol for April delivery rose 0.14 US cents to US$1.5089 a gallon, a record for the near-month Nymex contract.

"Technical indicators are very bullish and fund activity was inching higher," said Antonio Szabo, chief executive of Houston-based consultant Stone Bond Technologies.

For the week ended March 1, speculative long positions, or bets prices will rise, outnumbered short positions by 60,173 contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest since June, according to US Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. In its Commitments of Traders report, net-long positions rose by 5,997 contracts, or 11 per cent, from a week earlier.

Higher production from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries might limit gains in oil prices, according to some bearish respondents in this week's survey.

OPEC members boosted daily output by 482,000 barrels to an average of 29.85 million barrels last month, according to a Bloomberg survey of oil companies, producers and analysts. In October, OPEC members pumped 30.54 million barrels a day, which was the most since December 1979, based on US Energy Department records.

OPEC, which produces about 40 per cent of the world's oil, is scheduled to meet in Isfahan, Iran, on March 16 to discuss second-quarter output levels.

"OPEC, which typically only focuses on fundamentals, has been making friendly noises toward the consuming world," Szabo said."OPEC President Al-Sabah has insinuated the possibility of production increases by the organization, to be decided at this month's meeting," he said. Szabo was referring to Sheikh Ahmad Fahd al-Ahmad al-Sabah, who is also Kuwait's oil minister.

Fundamentals, or supply and demand indicators, suggest that OPEC may not need to boost output. While the group has cited rising inventories in consuming countries as a reason for production restraint, oil's rally may encourage the group to boost output to lower prices.

US crude-oil supplies gained 2.4 million barrels to 299.4 million last week, the highest since July, according to a March 2 government report. Stockpiles of distillates, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, are at the lowest since June.

(Source: Heesun Wee and Mark Shenk/China Daily)