"There is little probability that the trade surplus this year will exceed the 2005 level,"said Li Yushi, vice-president of the Research Institute of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation under the Ministry of Commerce.

Li was speaking at the publication of the spring edition of the report on China's foreign trade at the Chinese Export Commodity Fair held in Guangzhou, capital of south China's Guangdong Province.

The two-week fair, a biannual event launched in 1957, consists of two phases: manufactured goods, textiles and garments, foodstuffs and medicines in the first phase from April 15 to 20; and souvenirs, gifts and household commodities in the second, from April 25 to 30.

"If no major changes occur on international markets, China will likely limit its trade surplus to within 50 billion U.S. dollars this year," Li predicted.

Last year, China's foreign trade amounted to 1,422 billion U.S. dollars, with a surplus of 101.88 billion U.S. dollars. The surplus was 69.8 billion U.S. dollars more than the previous year.

The high surplus has been criticized in the European Union and the United States.

The continuous surplus growth stemmed from a global shift in manufacturing, said Li. Processing in Asia for consumption in Europe and North America made balanced international trade difficult to realize over a short period.

The fair, China's leading platform for export commodities, continued to see a strong demand for Chinese products.

The 99th fair has attracted 150,000 business people from overseas, up six percent from the previous fair.

Continued strong demand buoyed up a surplus of 23.3 billion U.S. dollars in the first quarter this year, up 41.4 percent over the same period last year. It also helped raise China's foreign exchange reserves to 875.1 billion U.S. dollars at the end of March, up 56.2 billion U.S. dollars from the end of last year.

However, customs data showed export growth slowed with a rapid increase in imports between January and March.

Liu Haiquan, a senior official with the Ministry of Commerce, said China exported 197.3 billion U.S. dollars worth of goods in the first quarter, up 26.6 percent year-on-year, but 8.3 percentage points slower than the previous growth rate. Meanwhile, the country imported 174 billion U.S. dollars worth of goods, up 24.8 percent, an acceleration of 12.6 percentage points in the growth rate.

"The figures indicate that the government has taken measures to address the trade surplus," Liu Haiquan said.

The measures included slashing or scrapping tax refunds for some export commodities and levying export duties on others.

"Meanwhile, the government has encouraged imports," Liu said, citing the orders worth 16.2 billion U.S. dollars made this month in the United States.

China's demand for imports would be jacked up by rapid investment growth at home, Liu forecast.

Customs sources said China imported 93.73 billion U.S.dollars worth of machines and electronics and 53.37 billion U.S. dollars worth of new and high-tech products in the first quarter, up 30.8 percent and 33.2 percent respectively. The growth rates were 21 percentage points and 12.8 percentage points, respectively, higher than the previous level.

The China foreign trade report(spring edition) forecasts that foreign trade will reach 1,600 billion U.S. dollars this year, up 15 percent over last year. Enditem