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Urban-area investment ebb may be temporary
2007-08-17 03:20:24 Shanghai Daily

SHANGHAI, Aug. 17 -- GROWTH in spending on China's urban fixed assets eased slightly last month, a government report said yesterday.

But the slower pace of investment was probably only "temporary relief," given other robust economic indicators last month, analysts said.

Urban fixed-asset investment jumped 26.6 percent to 5.67 trillion yuan (US$746.2 billion) in the first seven months of this year, the National Bureau of Statistics said yesterday. The growth was almost unchanged from the 26.7 percent increase in the first half.

"We believe the slower activity growth should provide temporary relief for policy makers," said Liang Hong, an economist at Goldman Sachs.

"However, the stronger money and credit growth in July raises questions on whether FAI and industrial production growth can stabilize around current levels, or the July data points are merely a temporary blip."

In July, industrial output rose 18 percent. Exports jumped 34.2 percent, sending the monthly trade surplus to US$24.35 billion.

Banks extended 2.8 trillion yuan in new loans in the first seven months, an 18 percent increase from the same period last year.

The central bank has hiked borrowing costs three times and ordered banks to set aside more money as reserves six times this year to drain cash from the financial system.

In yesterday's report, non-metals mining and products jumped 48.8 percent year-on-year through July, down from a 50.3 percent rise in the first half. Oil and natural gas exploitation climbed 10.4 percent through July, down from the 13.1 percent rate in the first half.

"Further monetary tightening is possible in the short term to curb liquidity, but the economy as a whole is still on the right track as domestic consumption plays a bigger role," said Li Mingliang, an analyst at Haitong Securities Co.

Retail sales climbed 16.4 percent from a year earlier, speeding slightly from June's 16 percent rise. The annual sales figure will probably jump 15.8 percent to 8.85 trillion yuan, the fastest growth since 1997, according to a forecast by the State Information Center, a research unit under the National Development and Reform Commission.

China has also cut taxes, raised minimum wages and improved education, welfare and health care in a bid to boost consumer spending and relieve the reliance on investment and exports.

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