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HONG KONG, Jun 6 (AP) -- Hong Kong plans to report April's retail sales on Tuesday and economists expect more growth as domestic demand remained resilient despite higher lending costs from local banks.
April's retail sales would likely expand by 6 percent compared to the same time last year, according to a Dow Jones Newswires poll of seven economists. The figure compares with a rise of 5.4 percent in March.
However, the growth rate of retail sales has already come down from its recent highs. Sales rose 9.1 percent in real terms for all of 2004 and 8.8 percent in the first two months of 2005. The growth could well moderate further as the economy slows over the course of the year.
Banks have been raising interest rates since March, but that "should have little negative effect on consumer spending in April," Citigroup analysts wrote in a report. "However, the dampened impact on household spending should gradually increase later this year as interest rates rise further."
Nonetheless, most economists don't foresee a sharp falloff in consumption, as a number of positive factors _ such as a fall in the unemployment rate to its lowest level in more than three years _ are supporting consumer spending.
"In addition to loose monetary conditions, retail sales are being underpinned by a healthy influx of overseas visitors, half of which come from the mainland (China)," Lehman Brothers analysts said. "Also, a rise in property prices, coupled with an improving labor market, have helped to lift consumer confidence."
A boost to tourism could come from the September opening of the Hong Kong Disneyland amusement park, analysts said, which would also increase confidence in the domestic economy.
"We expect retail sales to pick up again, as Disneyland and other tourism projects usher in the next tourism wave," said Goldman Sachs in a research note. "We also believe consumption will continue to firm up, on the back of income and wage growth. We believe this will help mitigate the negative impact of rising interest rates."
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