TAIPEI, May 16 (AP) -- Taiwan's economy likely grew solidly in the first quarter on robust exports, but at a slower pace than the previous quarter, economists say.

In the January-March period, Taiwan's gross domestic product -- the value of all goods and services produced domestically -- likely grew 4.74 percent from the same period last year, according to the average forecast of 13 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires.

The government is scheduled to issue first quarter GDP data and its latest 2006 economic forecasts Thursday.

"In a nutshell, first-quarter GDP is an exports story, caused by a rebound in manufacturing activity," said Arthur Woo, an economist with Merrill Lynch.

In the final quarter of 2005, the island's GDP grew 6.4 percent, the fastest pace in six quarters.

Taiwan's exports in the first quarter rose 11.4 percent from the same period last year to 1.58 trillion New Taiwan dollars (US$49.99 billion; €38.98 billion), and its quarterly trade surplus soared 56.9 percent to NT$102.61 billion (US$3.23 billion; €2.51 billion) from US$2.06 billion in the first quarter of 2005.

The island's industrial output also rose 8.1 percent in the first quarter, with manufacturing production, the biggest component of industrial output, up 8.21 percent.

But economists said slack personal consumption, which makes up almost two-thirds of GDP, and lackluster private investment are concerns.

"Private investment and consumption are the weaker links in GDP," said Tai Hui, an economist at Standard Chartered.

Private consumption likely fell in the first quarter as banks cut credit lines to credit- and cash-card holders because of rising defaults.

Economists said they expect GDP growth rates to slow further in the third and fourth quarters, though the technology sector will still be the main driver of exports.

The impact of weaker domestic demand growth and slower capital investment "will likely persist for two to three more quarters," Forest Chen, an economist at Taiwan Securities Investment Advisory, said in a recent report.

Economists said they expect the local economy to expand 4.07 percent for all of 2006, according to the survey, compared with the government's growth forecast in February of 4.25 percent.

Taiwan's exports typically pick up in the second half of the year on the return-to-school and pre-Christmas consumer electronics demand.