News Analysis: History repeats itself in New Hampshire primary

WASHINGTON, Jan. 8 (Xinhua) -- If history can provide clues for the future, the ongoing New Hampshire primary Tuesday is showing similar patterns to previous U.S. presidential nomination races.

The second key battle for selecting the party candidate for November's elections largely mirrors the Democratic race in 2004 and the Republican contest of 2000.

If the results match those forecasts, Barack Obama will have followed John Kerry four years ago in securing the Democratic nomination by backing up his victory in the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses with a decisive win over Hillary Clinton, John Edwards and Bill Richardson in New Hampshire.

Meanwhile, John McCain could once again defeat the early Republican favorite, as he did in 2000, setting up a further set of showdowns in other states.

In 2000, McCain upset George W. Bush in New Hampshire, only to falter when the race moved to South Carolina.

This year, McCain's late-rallying campaign poses a similar challenge to Mitt Romney, who planted his flag in the backyard of his Massachusetts political base and aimed, as Bush did, to become the favorite for the nomination.

But nothing is guaranteed for the moment, given the fact that the number of undecided or lightly committed voters remains high -- especially on the Republican side of an anticipated record-high turnout.

The uncertainty of where independent voters, who can choose either primary, will come down adds tension.

Of course, there are differences this time compared to previous primary elections.

In 2000, McCain skipped the Iowa caucuses and concentrated his campaigning on New Hampshire.

On the Democratic side, Obama's first-place finish in Iowa was perhaps less of a surprise than Kerry's win in 2004, because he had been drawing big and enthusiastic crowds and had built a powerful ground organization.

The shortness of the time gap between the traditional leadoff events in Iowa and New Hampshire -- five days, rather than twice that time, as in the past -- compounds comeback problems for Hillary Clinton, Obama's arch rival.

But the New York senator can also find historical examples of successful recoveries from Iowa defeats.

In 1988, when Rep. Richard Gephardt of Missouri won Iowa and Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis came in third, New Hampshire reversed the order of finish.

And in 1992, when Iowa's Sen. Tom Harkin won the caucuses as a favorite son, New Hampshire divided its support between Paul Tsongas, a Massachusetts senator, and Bill Clinton.